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Top MLB Weekend Power Trends 8/27-8/292010-08-27
The final full weekend of August baseball is upon us, and for bettors, that is a fairly important benchmark, since typically, pric Programa Descuentos Deportivos
es for favorites start to rise significantly at this point in the year. We saw it already a few times this past week in some mismatched series’. Savvy handicappers have to recognize these spots where the “chalk” may or may not be worth your betting dollar anymore. While they are typically the team in the must-win scenario, no one ever gets ahead by paying too much for something. With that in mind, let’s take a look at this weekend’s action to see where the value may actually be, and also reveal our list of Top StatFox Power Trends for you to consider in your wagering.
Four of baseball’s six divisions go into the weekend with a four-game or less separation for the top spot. The only teams with more comfortable leads to play with over the final month are Texas, who is 8.5-games up on Oakland in the A.L. West, and San Diego, who leads San Francisco by 6-games in the N.l. West. Otherwise, you’d have to conclude that we’re all in for some exciting September races. That can be viewed two ways by a bettor of course. For one, you have the chance to bet on some high stakes games the rest of the way, a month of playoff tune-ups if you will. For two, the games involving contenders and non-contenders can often show over-inflated lines. Let’s see what we have to choose from this weekend.
In the National League, only one of the eight series’ matches two postseason contenders against one another, and it is a great series. Philadelphia, who is 3-games under .500 on the road and trails the Braves in the East by that same amount, heads to San Diego to take on the red-hot Padres, who have been nearly unbeatable at home. This series figures to show some stellar pitching matchups, starting with the opener featuring Roy Oswalt and Mat Latos. The Phils are also looking up in the wildcard standings right now but trail the Giants by just a half-game.
The rest of the N.L. slate featuring playoff contenders are series’ that are candidates for potential over-pricing. The Cardinals will be in Washington and expected to be sizeable favorites in all three games. However, note that St. Louis is just 3-8 in its L11 games and already lost the series opener on Thursday. The Reds are hosting the Cubs, and returning home for the first time after a successful 6-3 West coast trip. The Cubs played well this week in Washington but are still 20-games under .500 and have begun rebuilding. The Braves, off a sweep at the hands of Colorado, play host to the pesky Marlins, whom they’ve had a competitive rivalry with over the last few years. Florida is hot, 7-2 in its L9 games. Finally, the Giants will be at home hosting the Diamondbacks, who are an ugly 20-42 on the road, including 0-3 in San Francisco this season.
The American League features one huge high profile series, and it could be do or die for the Red Sox in that matchup, as they take to the road in Tampa. Boston is 5.5-games back of both the A.L. East and wildcard leads heading into the weekend, but needs to improve its 4-8 record versus the Rays. Boston could reduce those deficits over the next 13 days. After this series ends Sunday, the Red Sox and Rays will meet for the final time in the regular season from Sept. 6-8 at Fenway Park.
While that series is going on, the Rays will have their eye on the scoreboard and what is happening in Chicago, where the White Sox will be hosting the Yankees. New York is deadlocked with Tampa atop the East and for the league’s best overall mark, however, the series is just as important, or perhaps even more important to the Sox, who trail the Twins by 3.5-games in the Central. Minnesota is in Seattle, so it clearly has the edge on paper this weekend. Finally, in the A.L. West, Texas puts its 8.5-game lead on the line when it hosts the A’s, its closest competitor. This could be the last gasp for Oakland in 2010.
It figures to be a great weekend of playoff-like baseball. Here’s a look at the Top StatFox Power Trends that will impact the action.
ST LOUIS at WASHINGTON
ST LOUIS is 2-11 (-11.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season. The average score was ST LOUIS 4.1, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 3*)
CHICAGO CUBS at CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI is 21-6 (+14.9 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of this season. The average score was CINCINNATI 6.1, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 3*)
HOUSTON at NY METS
NY METS are 20-5 UNDER (+14.5 Units) vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse this season. The average score was NY METS 3.2, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 3*)
FLORIDA at ATLANTA
FLORIDA is 17-8 (+10.3 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game in the second half of this season. The average score was FLORIDA 4.4, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*)
PITTSBURGH at MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 21-10 OVER (+10.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 5.9, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 1*)
LA DODGERS at COLORADO
COLORADO is 15-4 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in home games vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game this season. The average score was COLORADO 6.5, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 1*)
PHILADELPHIA at SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO is 22-12 (+11.6 Units) against the money line vs. a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 4.6, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 1*)
ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO
ARIZONA is 17-8 OVER (+8.4 Units) vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of this season. The average score was ARIZONA 4.5, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 1*)
DETROIT at TORONTO
DETROIT is 20-30 (-16.9 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the last 2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 3.9, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 1*)
KANSAS CITY at CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 83-128 (-37.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CLEVELAND 4.3, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 1*)
BOSTON at TAMPA BAY
BOSTON is 7-24 (-18.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the last 2 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 3.6, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 2*)
OAKLAND at TEXAS
OAKLAND is 14-5 UNDER (+8.6 Units) vs. a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better this season. The average score was OAKLAND 3.1, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 1*)
NY YANKEES at CHI WHITE SOX
CHI WHITE SOX are 34-23 (+13.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHI WHITE SOX 5.1, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 1*)
BALTIMORE at LA ANGELS
BALTIMORE is 10-30 (-16.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BALTIMORE 4.1, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 1*)
MINNESOTA at SEATTLE
MINNESOTA is 44-25 (+9.4 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game this season. The average score was MINNESOTA 5.2, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*)
MLB: Four Thursday MLB games boast powerful trends
One of the things I make sure to do every morning throughout the baseball season is to dig through the FoxSheets Power Searches for the best available betting angles for that day’s action. Over the last couple of days I shared some of the best systems that I found intriguing. For Thursday, I’m concentrating on some interesting trends that are sure to affect four different nighttime games. Let’s take a look at those. For more key betting info, visit the GAME MATCHUPS page. Lines courtesy of Sportsbook.com.
<b>(955) NY METS (SANTANA) at (956) WASHINGTON (HERNANDEZ) - 7:05 PM</b>
<b><i>Line: Mets -130, Total: 8 OV-105</b></i>
The first game of interest finds the Mets coming back from Puerto Rico to visit Washington. The pitching matchup is a good one, with Johan Santana squaring off against Livan Hernandez. There are two interesting trends that could produce a correlated parlay for the game:
<li>NY METS are 17-4 UNDER (+12.5 Units) vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. The average score was NY METS 3.1, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 3*)
<li>JOHAN SANTANA is 73-13 (+48 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. The average score was SANTANA 5.1, OPPONENT 2.9 - (Rating = 3*)
The bottom line is that Santana is usually at his best against the league’s lesser teams, while at the same time, the Mets as a club don’t typically hit well when matched against weaker hitting foes. By the looks of these angles, this game has all the makings of a 4-3 Mets win.
<b>(959) SAN FRANCISCO (BUMGARNER) at (960) COLORADO (COOK) 8:40 PM</b>
<b><i>Line: Colorado -140, Total: 9.5 -110</b></i>
<li>COLORADO is 14-1 UNDER (+13 Units) after allowing 10 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. The average score was COLORADO 4.4, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 4*)
Colorado comes off a huge series win at San Diego, where it took two of three games. Unfortunately, Game 3 was the stinker, with the Padres whipping the Rockies 13-3. It sets up for a nice angle on an UNDER the total for today’s series opener with San Francisco though. After a big game in which the pitching staff was rocked, Colorado has come back well, holding opponents to just 3.6 runs per game. When you consider that many of these contests are at Coors Field, the allowance is even more impressive. Of course, it shouldn’t be all that shocking, as the Rockies’ bullpen has been one of the best in baseball this season with a WHIP of 1.276. It’s not often they are shelled in back-to-back games.
<b>(967) OAKLAND (CAHILL) at (968) BALTIMORE (ARRIETA) 7:05 PM</b>
<b><i>Line: Oakland -140, Total: 8.5 OV-105</b></i>
The A’s Trevor Cahill is quietly putting together one of the better seasons in the American League this year among starting pitchers. His WHIP is just 1.080 and his team is 9-3 in games he starts in 2010. His success leads to another side/total parlay opportunity:
<li>BALTIMORE is 1-16 (-14.3 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 2.8, OPPONENT 6.5 - (Rating = 2*)
<li>TREVOR CAHILL is 18-5 UNDER (+12.2 Units) vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CAHILL 4, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 2*)
In essence, Baltimore can’t hit good pitchers and Oakland’s offense typically isn’t good enough to produce OVER’s in such situations. Coming off Wednesday’s 9-6 win by the Orioles, expect a more focused pitching effort by the A’s.
<b>(969) TAMPA BAY (NIEMANN) at (970) MINNESOTA (PAVANO) 8:10 PM</b>
<b><i>Line: Minnesota -115, Total: 8.5 OV-105</b></i>
The Rays and Twins start a 4-game set from Minnesota on Thursday and the series opener is today’s FREE FoxSheet. On it you’ll find several strong trends, among them…
<li>JEFF NIEMANN is 12-0 (+12 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NIEMANN 7.8, OPPONENT 2.6 - (Rating = 2*)
<li>JOE MADDON is 13-41 (-27.5 Units) against the money line in road games in July games as the manager of TAMPA BAY. The average score was MADDON 3.4, OPPONENT 6.1 - (Rating = 3*)
Most teams that beat Niemann do so by hitting the long ball. The Twins have hit just 22 in their first 39 games at Target Field. However, this game actually produces a very strong conflicting trend as well, as the Rays have struggled horribly on the road in July under Joe Maddon. Perhaps you’re as surprised as me to hear that. With the Twins one of the better home teams in baseball, and the Rays one of the best to date on the road, it figures to be a good game either way. Perhaps the StatFox Power Rating, which shows Tampa Bay -140, could be the deciding factor for you.